David Shipley, Telegraph-Journal

FREDERICTON - In one vision, goods move seamlessly across North America and the continental economy thrives in the global marketplace.

In another, goods struggle to move across border checkpoints and face long delays on antiquated railways, overcrowded roads and congested ports.

But which is more likely in 2030?

That's the question a group of transportation industry experts and academics from Canada, the United States and Mexico are hoping to explore as part of their work outlining opportunities and challenges which will transform the transportation of goods throughout North America over the next 22 years.

"They way I'm suggesting we look at this is in terms of alternative scenarios. On a range from fully integrated to disintegrated, where are we likely to be in 2030, where do we want to be and how do we get there," says Stephen Blank, a retired Pace University professor and a North American transportation and energy consultant.

Blank is the co-chairman of the North American Transportation Competitiveness Research Council.

He was in Fredericton on Monday to speak about Envisioning a North American Freight System in 2030 at the Canadian Transportation Research Forum annual conference at the Crowne Plaza hotel.

Blank said Canadians should be concerned about continental rather than simply national transportation issues because of the fundamental changes to the country's economy as a result of North American free trade initiatives in the 1980s and 1990s.

"As firms developed cross-border supply chains, they maximized the value from regional specialization," he said. "By the end of the 1990s the key characteristic of the North American economy, in many sectors, was cross-border supply chains."

The cross-border supply chains have enabled North American firms to be more efficient and competitive.

But while cross-border supply chains have become increasingly important, since the early 2000s, they have faced growing challenges, he noted.

"There's congestion, inadequate maintenance, a lack of harmonized regulations, hardening of the border, a variety of issues that all came at the same time, he said.

"We have to think about how we grow the system again and rejuvenate it."

Mary Brooks, a professor of marketing and transportation and William A. Black chairman of the commerce department at Dalhousie University, said four major issues will influence the North American transportation sector over the next two decades.

Energy and fuel costs, labour availability, environmental concerns and government red tape will all influence the structure and effectiveness of the continental transportation system, she said.

Envisioning what the transportation sector in North America will look like in 2030 will help businesses make long-term plans, said Brooks.

"Businesses have to make long-term investments and sometimes those investments have to have a 20 or 30 year lifespan, they want to know whether or not to make those very big investments going forward," she said. "We're trying to think very big picture as opposed to what's going to happen next year."